| 27 January 2012
Joe Davidson of the Sacramento Bee reported tonight on Chip Kelly's home visit with premier defensive lineman Arik Armstead of Elk Grove, California. Armstead, he wrote, had a nice visit with the coach and enjoyed him. "He was very witty," the 6-8, 295-lb. five-star recruit said.
Armstead also told Davidson that he asked Kelly if the coach could guarantee that he'd be in Oregon for Armstead's entire college career, and The Visor, ever direct and refreshingly honest, told him no, he couldn't. Armstead took this in stride, reflecting that he'd rather play for a sought-after, successful coach with goals of his own, rather than one nobody wanted. Take that, Jeff Tedford. (Armstead didn't say that part.)
A forward-thinking operation: to secure the future, the Ducks can't let it take them by surprise.
Earlier today Mike Florio of nbcsports.com reported that on Sunday night when Kelly was close to signing a deal with the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oregon was ready to name Mark Helfrich as head coach. Florio didn't say interim. He said head coach.
Two things are pretty clear from the events of this week. One, Chip Kelly is and will remain a hot commodity in coaching. He's dynamic and smart. His teams are motivated and prepared. He's an innovator with a forceful, unique philosophy. He wins. The Ducks earned three BCS bowls in the three years he's been here, and they're a strong favorite to make another in 2012, maybe another Granddaddy, and maybe the richest prize of them all. Two, Chip Kelly won't stay at Oregon forever. He just told one of the most sought after recruits in the country as much in the two-minute drill of sixty-minute war for his services, when a lot of lesser coaches would have lied like Bill Clinton denying a tryst in a closet.
Kelly turned down Tampa Bay because he said his heart was at Oregon, and he had unfinished business here. But it's clear his heart won't remain here forever, and sooner or later he'll yearn to move on to other challenging, lucrative business, like an NFL offer he won't refuse. Suppose, this year, the next or the next, Bill Bellichick wins another Super Bowl and decides to step down as coach of the New England Patriots. Or a deep pockets owner watches Kelly clinch a victory in a National Championship Game going for it on fourth and two, and offers him an NFL-record eight million a season the next day. He might take it. One day he will, absolutely.
The coach has no deep ties to Oregon, no history here other than the one he creates every day. He burns to challenge himself at the highest level of coaching, and chafes at the restrictions of dealing with the NCAA and its endless administrative chuckholes. You can't give a recruit a baseball cap. You can Tweet on Friday but you can't call on Monday. Accepting a ride from the airport and paying a guy to make a few phone calls and a couple of introductions could lead to a three-year bowl ban. Or it won't, depending on whether a kid got any free tattoos. The reason Chip Kelly is a great football coach is that he doesn't care about anything as much as coaching football. The NCAA, which ignores certain kinds of cheating but makes a NTSB case out of trivialities, is a torture chamber for a thoroughly logical, relentlessly efficient man. And, being fiercely, unrelentingly competitive, he wants to coach at the highest level and win on the biggest stage. It's pretty hard to turn down six to seven million dollars to live your dream, even for unfinished business.
Oregon kept Kelly this week, but there's no guarantee about next year or the year after. The upside for the Ducks, in terms of retaining the coach with the highest winning percentage in the modern era, is probably three years. A national championship win, another Rose Bowl, or more harrassment from the headquarters of the National Communists Against Athletes could start the clock ticking.
In recruiting, the question will come up every year. How long will you be here? What happens when you leave? Bet that Sarkisian, Kiffin, Lupoi, Tedford and others will play on that uncertainty, and a certain portion of the time, overplay it.
Program-changing recruits like Armstead and Shaq Thompson agonize over finding the right fit. The school, the coach, the program, location and the system are crucial parts of that decision. They pledge a sacred loyalty to a coach they identify with and trust. Kelly is one of the best closers in the game, but his well-publicized ambition creates uncertainty and doubt. It's an objection a skilled communicator like CK can overcome, but it's equally clear Oregon has to have a back-up plan. Whenever Kelly goes, even if it's anticipated and the signs are clearer, it will be a shock to the system.
Right now, Chip Kelly is the perfect coach for Oregon. Not only is he 34-6, he wins in a flashy, entertaining style that fits here, fits the Nike image of the program, the uniform flair and innovative tradition he and Mike Bellotti have fostered here. These have been giddy times for long-term Duck fans that remember the years of The Suffering, when the Webfoots fluctuated between 2-9 and 6-5, going 24 years without a bowl game of any kind. In fact, from 1920 to 1988, the team made four bowl games in 68 years. Now, they've finished in the Top Ten three years out of the last four. They've beaten rival Oregon State four straight times and the Huskies eight. It's a glorious time, culminating in the first Rose Bowl trophy in nearly a hundred years.
Oregon's become a dynasty with three straight conference championships. Four things made it happen: facilities, continuity and coaching, and the demise of USC.
Realistically, the Ducks can't sustain this level of success forever. There's no natural recruiting base. The buildings will grow old. Phil Knight will die, or reach the limit of his remarkable generosity toward Oregon athletics. The Trojans and Huskies will rise again, maybe as soon as this fall.
To sustain their run as long as possible, the next coaching hire is crucial. There's typically a period of adjustment when a new coach comes in. He has to install his system and get players to fit it. The existing team has to adapt to a new culture, nomenclature and structure. There's a shakeout on the staff. Oregon's been blessed with tremendous continuity, a core of staff members with more than 20 years here Some of them are nearing retirement, and still others are apt to be offered other jobs, a couple even joining Kelly in the NFL one day.
It isn't necessary for them to announce it, but Rob Mullens and the Oregon Athletic Department have to have a plan in place for when Kelly leaves. Whether it's Helfrich, who's well-liked in the Casanova Center, and popular with the other coaches, or someone else, when Kelly considers the next offer, it can't be a surprise or a shock. They'll have to have the right guy ready.
