| 14 October 2011
The Vegas line on this game is Oregon -14.5, which means the Ducks have to win by more than two touchdowns without LaMichael James. They might do it, but it's crazy to bet more than a sixpack on that point spread.
Key matchup: Oregon's secondary versus the ASU wideouts. The Sun Devils' potent offense has scored 38 points a game this year, and six of the receivers have double-digit receptions. Gerrell Robinson and Mike Willie are both 6-4 and fast, and Aaron Pflugrad (an ex-Duck) runs precise routes and has good hands. Brock Osweiler accounts for 2/3 of the ASU offense through the air, and they mix bubble screen, the zone read running game and effective shots downfield.
Biggest concerns: Can Oregon's defense get stops against the ASU offense? Will Oregon's offensive line pave holes for Kenjon Barner and give Darron Thomas time to throw against a fast, swarming defense that has produced 18 turnovers and 16 sacks.
Key stats: The Sun Devils allow just 3.8 yards per rush, and they've forced 18 turnovers while sacking the quarterback six times. They clubbed USC 43-22, with tailback Cameron Marshall pounding the Trojans, 25 carries for 141 yards. Seeing the success Nevada, Cal and LSU had running on the Ducks, they could get a big dose of Marshall running right at them. He also catches the ball well out of the backfield, and they like to use speedy Jamal Miles in a variety of ways. He has a 78-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 98-yd td on a kickoff return, has run the ball 13 times for 101 yds., a 7.8-yd. average, and he's thrown one pass for a 35-yard completion.
Last year, ASU held James to 28 carries for 94 yards, and held Oregon's running game to just 125, their lowest output of the year. Only 7 Sun Devil turnovers kept the Ducks on top in a 42-31 win.
Oregon has succeed against a weak schedule so far. Their victims in the last four games are a combined 6-17. Oregon's remaining opponents are 24-14. ASU is a serious step up in competion from Arizona and Cal. They're 5-1, their only loss to #16 Illinois in Champaign.
See Charles Fisher's fishduck.com for a breakdown of changes in the Oregon offense that has made it more effective against teams who load up to stop the running game. The Ducks used to always run the zone read right with the tailback offset to the left, but now they've added a speed option and a power play going left to exploit the defense overplaying their bread and butter option play. Hroniss Grasu and Hamani Stevens are big (6-3, 291, 6-4, 305) but athletic and agile to pull and lead block on the power play, and this gives opposing defenses more to worry about.
It's a huge recruiting weekend for Oregon with receiver D.J. Foster, defensive tackle Ellis McCarthy, linebacker Bryce Cottrell, defensive end Jeremy Castro and safeties Reggie Daniels and Shaq Thompson coming in for the game. Foster, a fast, tough receiver who also is a standout, hard-hitting cornerback, is down to ASU and Oregon as his final choices. The Ducks, and the Autzen crowd, have a chance to make an impression.
Keys to a Duck win:
The offensive line must establish the run and protect Darron Thomas.
Thomas has to have a sharp, consistent, effective game with preferably a good start, in rhythm and in command, connecting with downfield targets Josh Huff, De'Anthony Thomas and Rahsaan Vaughn.
The Oregon defense must pressure Brock Osweiler and force some turnovers.
