| 25 November 2011
The Beavers want to shock the state, and they'll come to Autzen tomorrow loaded with emotion and determination. It would be the most satisfying 4-8 season in history if they upend the Ducks, who are favored by four touchdowns.
Upsets of that magnitude rarely happen, but when they do, it's because a massively more talented team is guilty of gross inattention, contributing to their demise with sloppiness, turnovers and getting badly fooled on big plays.
photo left: If the Ducks can avoid the curse of the Grello Helmets, they should find running room against the Beavs (oregonscout.com photo).
Straight up, this group of Beavers couldn't beat Oregon in twelve tries. OSU is a team that lost to Sacramento State and California, and even though they're coming off a big win over Washington and they're still in the running for the mythical Northwest Championship, having dusted Washington State 44-21, they have eight losses for many compelling reasons. They rank 116th in the country running the football, and 83rd defending the run. They're minus in turnovers and give up 4.6 yards per running play.
In the wins over Washington and Washington State, both opponents had to go to their number two quarterback. Last week, the Huskies' Nick Montana, a freshman, started for the first time. The Beavs knocked Jeff Tuel of the Cougars out just before halftime. Should the Ducks have to go to the bench, they'll get a surge of energy when Bryan Bennett enters the game, not a panic.
Oregon State converts just 38.9% of their third downs on the road, and with the stadium Autzen loud, and all-time leading receiver James Rodgers questionable with a badly sprained ankle, their offense should struggle even more. Freshman quarterback Sean Mannion has thrown for 13 touchdowns and 3029 yards, but he's also been intercepted 16 times and sacked 18.
As a team, the Beavers have run the ball for a hundred yards or more only four times all year, against Sacramento State, Arizona, Washington State and Washington. Seven times this season they've been held to 59 yards or less on the ground, including three of their last four games. Here are their rushing totals for Utah, Stanford and California: 32, 33, and 27 yards, 64 total attempts, 92 yards, 1.43 yards a carry. Mike Riley's leading rusher against Washington? Receiver Markus Wheaton on the reverse, three carries for 66 yards, 56 on one play. With superior team speed, the Ducks should succeed in making OSU one dimensional, and Sean Mannion doesn't enjoy the big, physical targets that Matt Barkley had.
In most of life you are what your record says you are, but that truism doesn't apply to rivalry games. Weird things happen. Fueled by bolts of andrenalin and lifetime performances by unknowns visited the previous night by the ghost of Night Train Lane (remember Jake Cookus? Joey Harrington does.) underdog players can get the kind of speed and strength a 110-pound woman gets when her baby is in the path of a speeding car. To win, Oregon State has to get two or three of these fever-dream, inspired performances, the kind the Lakota got after Sitting Bull's famous vision the night before Custer's Last Stand.
Provided Chip Kelly can avoid Custer's level of arrogance and bad planning, the Ducks should live to fight in the PAC-12 Championship Game.
